There are many factors in calculating shelf life on food products. I have found the following sources to be clear explanations of the major factors.
Water Activity:
"Water in food not bound to food molecules can support the growth of bacteria, yeasts and moulds (fungi) - the term 'water activity' refers to this unbound water."
(http://www.csiro.au/en/Outcomes/Food-and-Agriculture/water-activity-in-food.aspx)
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